property nerds · the overbidfrom the mlsclosed sales 2012–2026by the boyenga team at compass
How much over asking, in dollars
In 2012, the typical Silicon Valley home that sold over asking went $25K over list. In 2025 it was $105K, and one in ten went $415K or more over. Here is the overbid every month since 2012, in every city and at every price.
$219K
median dollars over list, by closing month, among sales that closed over asking · peak March 2022, $219K · latest September 2026, $111K
- 2025 median overbid$105Kover list, among 8,625 homes that sold over asking
- top 10% in 2025$415K+over list; the biggest overbids run far above the median
- in percent6.4%the median over-asking sale in 2025, against 4.6% in 2012
year by year
The overbid, year by year
Silicon Valley, year by year (pick a county or city in the next section). Over-asking sales are the homes that closed above their final list price; the overbid is closing price minus list price.
| year | sales | over asking | median overbid | top 10% | % over list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 20,967 | 51% | $25K | $101K | 4.6% |
| 2013 | 19,939 | 66% | $41K | $155K | 6.4% |
| 2014 | 18,657 | 65% | $45K | $213K | 6.0% |
| 2015 | 18,401 | 71% | $60K | $254K | 7.4% |
| 2016 | 17,794 | 64% | $48K | $185K | 5.3% |
| 2017 | 17,832 | 74% | $76K | $277K | 7.8% |
| 2018 | 16,706 | 73% | $105K | $332K | 9.4% |
| 2019 | 16,581 | 49% | $50K | $201K | 4.0% |
| 2020 | 17,699 | 56% | $52K | $202K | 4.5% |
| 2021 | 23,702 | 75% | $112K | $405K | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 16,965 | 65% | $131K | $500K | 9.5% |
| 2023 | 13,208 | 59% | $90K | $302K | 6.3% |
| 2024 | 15,376 | 65% | $121K | $406K | 7.7% |
| 2025 | 15,163 | 57% | $105K | $415K | 6.4% |
| 2026* | 11,564 | 58% | $111K | $455K | 6.5% |
Silicon Valley = the 31 cities we cover in Santa Clara County and bay-side San Mateo County. Overbid = closing price minus final list price, among sales that closed over asking. * = January–September 2026. Pick a county or city below.
your city
Your city’s overbid
Pick a city to see its median overbid every year since 2012, and at each price from January 2024 to September 2026.
Silicon Valley: the median overbid was $112K (6.9% over list) from January 2024 to September 2026.
25,307 of 42,103 sales closed over asking (60%). One in ten of those went $422K or more over list.
| price band | sales | over asking | median overbid | top 10% | % over list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $1M | 8,023 | 40% | $20K | $75K | 2.9% |
| $1M–1.5M | 10,108 | 60% | $75K | $213K | 6.2% |
| $1.5M–2M | 8,606 | 68% | $112K | $288K | 7.2% |
| $2M–3M | 8,127 | 70% | $202K | $460K | 9.2% |
| $3M–5M | 5,362 | 68% | $302K | $672K | 9.0% |
| $5M+ | 1,877 | 49% | $412K | $1.11M | 6.8% |
Bars: median dollars over list among sales that closed over asking, by year (* = January–September 2026; — = fewer than 10 over-asking sales). Table: January 2024 to September 2026 by closing price.
by price
The overbid at every price
From January 2024 to September 2026, the median overbid ran from $20K under $1M to $412K at $5M and up. In percent, the $2M–3M band went furthest over list (9.2%), just ahead of $3M–5M (9.0%).
- under $1M$20K2.9% over list3,180 over asking
- $1M–1.5M$75K6.2% over list6,067 over asking
- $1.5M–2M$112K7.2% over list5,810 over asking
- $2M–3M$202K9.2% over list5,683 over asking
- $3M–5M$302K9.0% over list3,640 over asking
- $5M+$412K6.8% over list927 over asking
Silicon Valley, January 2024 – September 2026, sales that closed over asking, by closing price. Orange = the band with the highest median percent over list.
every city
Every city, ranked by overbid
Every city from January 2024 to September 2026, ranked by the median overbid among its over-asking sales.
| city | median overbid | top 10% | % over list | over asking | over-asking sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atherton | $405K | $2.00M | 6.3% | 38% | 77 |
| Los Altos | $372K | $1.02M | 9.1% | 61% | 547 |
| Hillsborough | $353K | $861K | 6.0% | 40% | 122 |
| Monte Sereno | $314K | $757K | 6.1% | 50% | 52 |
| Palo Alto | $287K | $733K | 8.1% | 62% | 836 |
| Burlingame | $252K | $630K | 9.7% | 58% | 331 |
| Saratoga | $240K | $625K | 6.4% | 60% | 467 |
| Los Altos Hills | $205K | $700K | 4.0% | 42% | 100 |
| Portola Valley | $203K | $507K | 4.8% | 40% | 78 |
| Cupertino | $202K | $591K | 8.5% | 68% | 616 |
| San Francisco (also shown) | $200K | $610K | 13.4% | 59% | 7,474 |
| Millbrae | $196K | $480K | 10.9% | 68% | 270 |
| Belmont | $188K | $513K | 7.9% | 66% | 353 |
| San Carlos | $188K | $502K | 8.3% | 59% | 485 |
| Sunnyvale | $187K | $550K | 9.4% | 73% | 1,656 |
| Menlo Park | $177K | $589K | 6.8% | 53% | 517 |
| San Mateo | $152K | $445K | 8.9% | 58% | 1,281 |
| Santa Clara | $145K | $417K | 8.6% | 67% | 1,261 |
| Redwood City | $132K | $394K | 7.1% | 59% | 888 |
| Campbell | $129K | $395K | 7.5% | 61% | 524 |
| Mountain View | $128K | $464K | 7.4% | 65% | 925 |
| Woodside | $124K | $686K | 4.0% | 27% | 52 |
| Los Gatos | $114K | $400K | 4.9% | 43% | 578 |
| South San Francisco | $110K | $262K | 9.6% | 72% | 571 |
| Daly City | $102K | $256K | 10.1% | 70% | 770 |
| San Bruno | $102K | $267K | 7.7% | 60% | 429 |
| Foster City | $100K | $302K | 5.8% | 59% | 372 |
| San Jose | $87K | $300K | 6.1% | 61% | 9,318 |
| Milpitas | $77K | $260K | 5.9% | 66% | 711 |
| East Palo Alto | $52K | $176K | 5.9% | 51% | 125 |
| Morgan Hill | $50K | $168K | 3.4% | 44% | 543 |
| Gilroy | $25K | $100K | 2.3% | 44% | 452 |
January 2024 – September 2026. Medians from fewer over-asking sales swing more (under 100: Atherton, Monte Sereno, Portola Valley, Woodside); the count is in the last column.
the method
How the overbid is measured
How the overbid is measured, so you can check it.
- Data
- Closed sales reported to the MLS in the cities we cover, January 2012 to September 2026 (San Francisco from 2022): houses, condos and townhomes, with repeat records removed and sales under 50% or over 200% of list left out.
- The overbid
- Closing price minus final list price, for sales that closed above list. The list price is the final asking price, after any price cuts. Seller credits and concessions aren’t subtracted.
- Median and top 10%
- The median is the middle overbid among over-asking sales; the top 10% line is the 90th percentile. A median needs at least 10 over-asking sales.
- Dollars, not adjusted
- Nominal dollars, the amounts buyers actually paid. Overbids grow with prices, so the percent column helps compare years and price points.
- Bands and window
- Price bands use the closing price. City and band numbers pool January 2024 through September 2026 so each has enough sales.
- What it isn’t
- Not a forecast and not advice on what to offer. An overbid depends on how the home was priced, its condition and the competition that week.
the data
Download the overbid
Download the overbid for Silicon Valley, both counties and every city by year, by price band for 2024–2026, and Silicon Valley by month.
Boyenga Team. “How Much Over Asking: The Silicon Valley Overbid in Dollars, 2012–2026,” from closed MLS sales, October 2026. https://www.boyengateam.com/how-much-over-asking
What each column means
area- Silicon Valley, a county region, San Francisco or a city.
period- A year (2026 = January–September), a month (YYYY-MM, Silicon Valley only) or 2024-01..2026-09.
band- Price band by closing price, or “all”.
sales- Closed sales, repeat records removed.
over_asking_sales- Sales that closed above the final list price.
median_overbid- Median closing price minus list price among over-asking sales, in dollars (rounded to $1,000).
top10_overbid- 90th percentile of the same, in dollars (rounded to $1,000).
median_pct_over- Median percent over list among over-asking sales (0.064 = 6.4%).
median_vs_list_all- Median closing price minus list price across all sales, in dollars; negative = under list.
questions
Questions we hear
How much over asking do homes sell for in Silicon Valley?
From January 2024 to September 2026, 60% of Silicon Valley sales closed over asking. The median over-asking sale went $112K over list (6.9%), and one in ten went $422K or more over. In 2025 alone the median was $105K.
How has the overbid changed since 2012?
The median overbid rose from $25K in 2012 (4.6% over list) to $105K in 2025 (6.4%), about four times as many dollars. The highest year was 2022 ($131K), and the highest month was March 2022 ($219K). In 2026 through September it was $111K.
How much over asking should I offer?
There isn’t one number. The median depends on the city and the price: from January 2024 to September 2026 it ran from $20K under $1M to $412K at $5M and up. A good offer comes from the sales that match the home, the number of offers expected and how the list price was set.
Where are overbids the biggest?
Among the 27 cities with at least 100 over-asking sales from January 2024 to September 2026, the highest median overbids were in Los Altos ($372K, 547 over-asking sales), Hillsborough ($353K, 122 over-asking sales) and Palo Alto ($287K, 836 over-asking sales). The lowest were Gilroy ($25K), Morgan Hill ($50K) and East Palo Alto ($52K).
Where do homes go furthest over list in percent?
Among cities with at least 100 over-asking sales from January 2024 to September 2026: Millbrae (10.9%, 270 over-asking sales), Daly City (10.1%, 770 over-asking sales) and Burlingame (9.7%, 331 over-asking sales). San Francisco, shown separately, was 13.4% ($200K).
Does a big overbid mean the home was underpriced?
Not necessarily. Some sellers list below the expected price to draw offers, and some homes simply draw more buyers. The overbid compares the sale to the list price, not to the home’s value.
Why do dollars and percent tell different stories?
A 5% overbid is $50K on a $1M home and $250K on a $5M home. Dollars show what buyers paid; percent shows how far past the list price they went.
Are seller credits included?
No. The overbid uses the closing price reported to the MLS; credits and concessions aren’t subtracted.
Where does the data come from?
From closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search, with repeat records removed. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
Can I download the data?
Yes. The data section has a CSV with every area by year, every price band for 2024–2026 and Silicon Valley by month.
more to learn
Go deeper
- Bidding Wars by PriceHow often homes at each price sold over asking, every year since 2012.
- Homes Selling Under AskingHow often homes sold under asking, the typical discount and the best months for buyers.
- Offer LabHow far over or under asking homes sold in the last 90 days.
- Property Nerds IndexThis week’s 0–100 reading of market heat.
- Best Month to SellEach city’s strongest and weakest closing months.
- Leverage LabWho has the upper hand at your exact price right now.
- Home Price HistoryEvery city’s median price since 2012.
- Data LibraryEvery dataset in one catalog, with methods, downloads and citations.
Based on closed sales reported to the MLS through our IDX feeds, read in October 2026. Shown as reported and not guaranteed; repeat records are removed. Overbids describe past sales, not any single home or a forecast.
talk to a property nerd
Writing an offer, or setting a list price?
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