property nerds · the discountfrom the mlsclosed sales 2012–2026by the boyenga team at compass
Where buyers still get a discount
Even in Silicon Valley, not every home sells over asking. From January 2024 to September 2026, 30% of sales closed under their final list price, and the typical discount was $48K (3.0%). Here is every year, month, price and city.
under askingat listover askingevery Silicon Valley closed sale, by year · * = January–September 2026
- under asking, 2024–2630%of Silicon Valley sales (12,741); 10% closed at list, 60% over
- median discount$48K3.0% under list among those sales; one in ten $199K or more
- most roomJanuary38% of closings under asking, on average since 2012
year by year
Under, at and over asking, every year
Every year, the share of Silicon Valley sales that closed under, at and over the final list price. The most under-asking year was 2019 (41%); the fewest, 2021 (18%).
| year | sales | under asking | at list | over | median discount | % under list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 20,967 | 38% | 11% | 51% | $20K | 3.1% |
| 2013 | 19,939 | 24% | 9% | 66% | $23K | 2.8% |
| 2014 | 18,657 | 26% | 10% | 65% | $20K | 2.5% |
| 2015 | 18,401 | 21% | 8% | 71% | $25K | 2.6% |
| 2016 | 17,794 | 27% | 9% | 64% | $26K | 2.5% |
| 2017 | 17,832 | 19% | 7% | 74% | $34K | 2.7% |
| 2018 | 16,706 | 20% | 7% | 73% | $45K | 3.1% |
| 2019 | 16,581 | 41% | 10% | 49% | $35K | 2.8% |
| 2020 | 17,699 | 34% | 10% | 56% | $35K | 2.7% |
| 2021 | 23,702 | 18% | 7% | 75% | $38K | 2.6% |
| 2022 | 16,965 | 27% | 8% | 65% | $50K | 3.6% |
| 2023 | 13,208 | 32% | 9% | 59% | $50K | 3.2% |
| 2024 | 15,376 | 26% | 9% | 65% | $48K | 2.9% |
| 2025 | 15,163 | 33% | 10% | 57% | $48K | 3.0% |
| 2026* | 11,564 | 32% | 10% | 58% | $46K | 3.1% |
Silicon Valley = the 31 cities we cover in Santa Clara County and bay-side San Mateo County. * = January–September 2026.
the calendar
When buyers get the most room
The share of sales closing under asking in each calendar month, averaged over 2012–2025. January closings went under asking most often (38%); April least (21%). The single highest month was January 2023 (59%).
By closing month, Silicon Valley, 2012–2025, each year weighted equally. Offers are usually accepted about a month before closing.
your city
Your city’s split
Pick a city to see its under, at and over-asking split every year since 2012, and the discount at each price from January 2024 to September 2026.
Silicon Valley: 30% of sales closed under asking from January 2024 to September 2026, a median of $48K (3.0%) under list.
12,741 of 42,103 sales under asking, 4,055 at list, 25,307 over. One in ten under-asking sales closed $199K or more below list.
| price band | sales | under asking | median discount | top 10% | % under list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $1M | 8,023 | 45% | $19K | $50K | 2.6% |
| $1M–1.5M | 10,108 | 31% | $39K | $101K | 3.1% |
| $1.5M–2M | 8,606 | 24% | $49K | $129K | 2.8% |
| $2M–3M | 8,127 | 23% | $89K | $200K | 3.4% |
| $3M–5M | 5,362 | 24% | $145K | $348K | 3.5% |
| $5M+ | 1,877 | 39% | $300K | $1.08M | 4.3% |
Columns: orange = under asking, light gray = at list, gray = over, with the under-asking share below each year (* = January–September 2026; hatched = fewer than 20 sales). Table: January 2024 to September 2026 by closing price; a discount needs 10 under-asking sales.
by price
The discount at every price
From January 2024 to September 2026, homes under $1M sold under asking most often (45%), then $5M and up (39%). The discount grows with the price: $19K under $1M, $300K at $5M and up.
- under $1M45% undermedian $19K (2.6%)3,641 of 8,023 sales
- $1M–1.5M31% undermedian $39K (3.1%)3,096 of 10,108 sales
- $1.5M–2M24% undermedian $49K (2.8%)2,104 of 8,606 sales
- $2M–3M23% undermedian $89K (3.4%)1,893 of 8,127 sales
- $3M–5M24% undermedian $145K (3.5%)1,271 of 5,362 sales
- $5M+39% undermedian $300K (4.3%)736 of 1,877 sales
Silicon Valley, January 2024 – September 2026, by closing price. Bars show the share of sales under asking (full width = 50%).
every city
Every city, ranked by under-asking sales
Every city from January 2024 to September 2026, ranked by the share of sales that closed under asking.
| city | under asking | at list | over | median discount | % under list | sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodside | 58% | 15% | 27% | $195K | 4.8% | 192 |
| Atherton | 51% | 11% | 38% | $469K | 4.7% | 201 |
| Los Altos Hills | 50% | 8% | 42% | $302K | 5.2% | 240 |
| Portola Valley | 50% | 11% | 40% | $195K | 3.8% | 197 |
| Los Gatos | 47% | 11% | 43% | $76K | 3.8% | 1,352 |
| East Palo Alto | 43% | 7% | 51% | $29K | 3.0% | 247 |
| Monte Sereno | 40% | 10% | 50% | $249K | 5.5% | 104 |
| Morgan Hill | 40% | 16% | 44% | $35K | 2.7% | 1,234 |
| Hillsborough | 40% | 20% | 40% | $287K | 4.9% | 306 |
| Gilroy | 38% | 17% | 44% | $29K | 2.5% | 1,024 |
| Menlo Park | 35% | 12% | 53% | $98K | 3.3% | 975 |
| Foster City | 33% | 8% | 59% | $38K | 2.7% | 632 |
| Redwood City | 32% | 9% | 59% | $57K | 3.7% | 1,493 |
| Saratoga | 32% | 8% | 60% | $127K | 3.5% | 774 |
| San Bruno | 30% | 10% | 60% | $24K | 3.1% | 719 |
| San Mateo | 30% | 11% | 58% | $39K | 3.3% | 2,194 |
| Burlingame | 30% | 12% | 58% | $81K | 3.7% | 569 |
| San Jose | 30% | 9% | 61% | $34K | 2.8% | 15,337 |
| San Francisco (also shown) | 29% | 12% | 59% | $45K | 3.5% | 12,759 |
| Los Altos | 29% | 10% | 61% | $90K | 2.9% | 898 |
| Campbell | 29% | 10% | 61% | $45K | 2.9% | 863 |
| San Carlos | 29% | 12% | 59% | $79K | 3.6% | 821 |
| Palo Alto | 29% | 9% | 62% | $100K | 3.6% | 1,352 |
| Milpitas | 27% | 6% | 66% | $29K | 2.4% | 1,077 |
| Mountain View | 26% | 9% | 65% | $38K | 2.8% | 1,428 |
| Santa Clara | 25% | 8% | 67% | $29K | 2.7% | 1,877 |
| Cupertino | 25% | 8% | 68% | $61K | 3.2% | 908 |
| Belmont | 24% | 10% | 66% | $49K | 3.0% | 535 |
| Millbrae | 24% | 8% | 68% | $49K | 2.9% | 396 |
| Daly City | 21% | 8% | 70% | $25K | 2.9% | 1,098 |
| Sunnyvale | 21% | 6% | 73% | $44K | 2.7% | 2,269 |
| South San Francisco | 20% | 8% | 72% | $29K | 3.1% | 791 |
January 2024 – September 2026. Shares from fewer sales swing more (under 200 sales: Woodside, Portola Valley, Monte Sereno).
the method
How the discount is measured
How the discount is measured, so you can check it.
- Data
- Closed sales reported to the MLS in the cities we cover, January 2012 to September 2026 (San Francisco from 2022): houses, condos and townhomes, with repeat records removed and sales under 50% or over 200% of list left out.
- Under, at, over
- A sale is under asking when the closing price is below the final list price, at list when they’re equal, and over when it’s above. The final list price is after any price cuts, so a home that was cut and then sold at the new price counts as at list.
- The discount
- Final list price minus closing price, among sales that closed under asking. The median is the middle discount; the top 10% line is the 90th percentile. A median needs at least 10 under-asking sales.
- Calendar
- Each month’s share is the average of that month across 2012–2025, each year counted equally. Closing usually comes about a month after the accepted offer.
- Bands and window
- Price bands use the closing price. City and band numbers pool January 2024 through September 2026 so each has enough sales.
- What it isn’t
- Not a forecast and not advice on what to offer. A discount depends on how the home was priced, its condition, how long it sat and the competition that week.
the data
Download the discount
Download the under, at and over-asking counts and the discount for Silicon Valley, both counties and every city by year, by price band for 2024–2026, and Silicon Valley by month.
Boyenga Team. “Homes Selling Under Asking: Where Silicon Valley Buyers Still Get a Discount, 2012–2026,” from closed MLS sales, October 2026. https://www.boyengateam.com/homes-selling-under-asking
What each column means
area- Silicon Valley, a county region, San Francisco or a city.
period- A year (2026 = January–September), a month (YYYY-MM, Silicon Valley only) or 2024-01..2026-09.
band- Price band by closing price, or “all”.
sales- Closed sales, repeat records removed.
under_asking- Sales that closed below the final list price.
at_list- Sales that closed exactly at the final list price.
median_discount- Median list price minus closing price among under-asking sales, in dollars (rounded to $1,000).
top10_discount- 90th percentile of the same, in dollars (rounded to $1,000).
median_pct_under- Median percent under list among under-asking sales (0.030 = 3.0%).
questions
Questions we hear
Do homes sell under asking in Silicon Valley?
Yes. From January 2024 to September 2026, 30% of Silicon Valley sales (12,741) closed under their final list price, 10% at list and 60% over. In 2025, 33% sold under asking.
How big is the discount?
Among homes that sold under asking from January 2024 to September 2026, the median discount was $48K (3.0% under list), and one in ten was $199K or more. In 2025 the median was $48K (3.0%).
What’s the best month to buy?
On average since 2012, January closings went under asking most often (38%) and April closings least (21%). Closing comes about a month after the offer, so those deals were mostly negotiated a month earlier. Fewer homes sell in winter, too.
Where do homes sell under asking most often?
Among the 28 cities with at least 200 sales from January 2024 to September 2026: Atherton (51% of 201 sales), Los Altos Hills (50% of 240 sales) and Los Gatos (47% of 1,352 sales). The lowest shares were in South San Francisco (20%), Sunnyvale (21%) and Daly City (21%).
At what price do buyers get the most room?
Homes under $1M sold under asking most often (45%), followed by $5M and up (39%). In dollars the discount grows with price, from $19K under $1M to $300K at $5M and up (4.3%).
Which year had the most under-asking sales?
2019, when 41% of Silicon Valley sales closed under asking. The fewest was 2021 (18%). The highest single month was January 2023 (59%).
Does under asking mean the buyer got a bargain?
Not necessarily. It compares the sale to the final list price, and some homes are listed above what the market will pay. A home that sold under asking may still have sold for more than similar homes nearby.
Do price cuts count?
The comparison uses the final list price, after any cuts. A home cut from $2.1M to $1.95M and sold at $1.95M counts as at list, not under.
Where does the data come from?
From closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search, with repeat records removed. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
Can I download the data?
Yes. The data section has a CSV with every area by year, every price band for 2024–2026 and Silicon Valley by month.
more to learn
Go deeper
- How Much Over AskingThe other side: how many dollars over list homes sold for.
- Price-Cut RadarLive listings with recent price cuts.
- Bidding Wars by PriceHow often homes at each price sold over asking.
- Best Month to SellEach city’s strongest and weakest closing months.
- Leverage LabWho has the upper hand at your exact price right now.
- Offer LabHow far over or under asking homes sold in the last 90 days.
- Data LibraryEvery dataset in one catalog, with methods, downloads and citations.
Based on closed sales reported to the MLS through our IDX feeds, read in October 2026. Shown as reported and not guaranteed; repeat records are removed. Shares describe past sales, not any single home or a forecast.
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