property nerds · bidding warsfrom the mlsclosed sales 2012–2026by the boyenga team at compass
The bidding wars moved up the price ladder
In 2012, Silicon Valley homes under $1M sold over asking more often (52%) than homes at $3M–5M (20%). In 2024–2026 it’s the other way around: 40% under $1M, 68% at $3M–5M. Here is every price band, every year and every city.
- under $1M52%40%
- $1M–1.5M53%60%
- $1.5M–2M53%68%
- $2M–3M37%70%
- $3M–5M20%68%
- $5M+16%49%
2012January 2024 – September 2026share of Silicon Valley sales closing over asking, by closing price
year by year
Every band, every year
The share of Silicon Valley sales closing over asking in each price band, every year since 2012. Darker means more bidding wars.
Silicon Valley
| price band | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $1M | 52 | 68 | 64 | 71 | 66 | 73 | 71 | 43 | 51 | 66 | 57 | 50 | 47 | 35 | 36 |
| $1M–1.5M | 53 | 68 | 71 | 76 | 67 | 79 | 77 | 52 | 61 | 79 | 64 | 63 | 67 | 56 | 55 |
| $1.5M–2M | 53 | 65 | 68 | 73 | 62 | 77 | 77 | 56 | 61 | 81 | 70 | 64 | 73 | 64 | 63 |
| $2M–3M | 37 | 52 | 64 | 66 | 59 | 70 | 73 | 55 | 57 | 81 | 72 | 64 | 72 | 68 | 69 |
| $3M–5M | 20 | 34 | 46 | 59 | 44 | 57 | 63 | 43 | 43 | 73 | 69 | 54 | 70 | 64 | 70 |
| $5M+ | 16 | 19 | 22 | 33 | 21 | 28 | 31 | 25 | 22 | 45 | 50 | 26 | 42 | 51 | 54 |
Santa Clara County
| price band | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $1M | 51 | 68 | 63 | 70 | 65 | 73 | 69 | 41 | 52 | 67 | 58 | 53 | 49 | 36 | 36 |
| $1M–1.5M | 53 | 66 | 69 | 75 | 64 | 78 | 75 | 49 | 62 | 79 | 63 | 64 | 67 | 54 | 53 |
| $1.5M–2M | 56 | 64 | 64 | 67 | 58 | 75 | 76 | 53 | 62 | 82 | 69 | 66 | 74 | 63 | 61 |
| $2M–3M | 39 | 56 | 66 | 64 | 58 | 70 | 72 | 53 | 58 | 82 | 73 | 68 | 74 | 67 | 68 |
| $3M–5M | 25 | 36 | 50 | 61 | 45 | 60 | 65 | 43 | 47 | 79 | 70 | 58 | 73 | 68 | 72 |
| $5M+ | 26 | 23 | 29 | 37 | 19 | 33 | 39 | 23 | 21 | 51 | 56 | 32 | 50 | 58 | 59 |
San Mateo County
| price band | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $1M | 52 | 69 | 69 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 80 | 56 | 46 | 59 | 52 | 39 | 41 | 32 | 33 |
| $1M–1.5M | 53 | 73 | 75 | 81 | 75 | 82 | 83 | 65 | 59 | 75 | 64 | 61 | 67 | 62 | 62 |
| $1.5M–2M | 46 | 69 | 74 | 81 | 69 | 81 | 81 | 61 | 57 | 78 | 71 | 55 | 69 | 67 | 72 |
| $2M–3M | 34 | 43 | 62 | 70 | 60 | 70 | 74 | 58 | 54 | 80 | 69 | 57 | 69 | 69 | 72 |
| $3M–5M | 14 | 31 | 42 | 56 | 44 | 52 | 59 | 45 | 37 | 61 | 65 | 43 | 62 | 54 | 67 |
| $5M+ | 9 | 17 | 16 | 30 | 22 | 24 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 39 | 45 | 20 | 30 | 39 | 49 |
Percent of each band’s sales closing above list price. Blank = fewer than 10 sales. * = January–September 2026.
your city
Every city’s ladder
Pick a city to see how often each price band sold over asking from January 2024 to September 2026, with the median sale-to-list ratio.
Silicon Valley: the hottest band was $2M–3M, 70% over asking.
- under $1M40% over100.0% of list8,023 sales
- $1M–1.5M60% over101.6% of list10,108 sales
- $1.5M–2M68% over103.3% of list8,606 sales
- $2M–3M70% over104.9% of list8,127 sales
- $3M–5M68% over104.4% of list5,362 sales
- $5M+49% over100.0% of list1,877 sales
Closed sales January 2024 to September 2026, by closing price. Share over asking, then the median sale-to-list ratio and the number of sales. A band needs 10 sales to show. Houses were 72% of Silicon Valley’s 2025 sales; the rest were condos and townhomes.
hottest band
The hottest price band in every city
Each city’s price band with the highest share of over-asking sales from January 2024 to September 2026 (bands with at least 30 sales).
| city | hottest band | over asking | sales | under $1M, over asking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunnyvale | $3M–5M | 94% | 389 | 41% |
| Santa Clara | $3M–5M | 90% | 50 | 38% |
| Daly City | $1.5M–2M | 85% | 117 | 50% |
| South San Francisco | $1.5M–2M | 84% | 137 | 47% |
| Milpitas | $2M–3M | 81% | 112 | 46% |
| San Bruno | $1.5M–2M | 80% | 220 | 34% |
| Millbrae | $1.5M–2M | 79% | 99 | 23% |
| Belmont | $3M–5M | 78% | 102 | 24% |
| Cupertino | $3M–5M | 78% | 392 | 30% |
| Palo Alto | $3M–5M | 76% | 597 | 30% |
| Mountain View | $3M–5M | 76% | 249 | 42% |
| Campbell | $2M–3M | 75% | 293 | 36% |
| Redwood City | $2M–3M | 75% | 496 | 28% |
| San Mateo | $1.5M–2M | 74% | 461 | 24% |
| Los Altos | $5M+ | 73% | 305 | 6% |
| San Francisco | $2M–3M | 73% | 1,976 | 34% |
| San Jose | $2M–3M | 72% | 2,525 | 42% |
| Foster City | $2M–3M | 72% | 172 | 33% |
| San Carlos | $3M–5M | 69% | 199 | 30% |
| Saratoga | $3M–5M | 68% | 417 | 17% |
| Burlingame | $3M–5M | 66% | 216 | 34% |
| Morgan Hill | $3M–5M | 65% | 63 | 34% |
| Menlo Park | $2M–3M | 63% | 253 | 26% |
| Los Gatos | $3M–5M | 57% | 362 | 24% |
| East Palo Alto | $1M–1.5M | 53% | 124 | 46% |
| Monte Sereno | $5M+ | 51% | 45 | — |
| Gilroy | under $1M | 48% | 376 | 48% |
| Portola Valley | $3M–5M | 48% | 90 | — |
| Los Altos Hills | $5M+ | 44% | 162 | — |
| Hillsborough | $5M+ | 40% | 207 | — |
| Atherton | $5M+ | 34% | 173 | — |
| Woodside | $3M–5M | 33% | 58 | — |
January 2024 – September 2026. Bands with fewer than 30 sales aren’t eligible; “—” = fewer than 10 sales under $1M.
the method
How the bands are built
How the bands are built, so you can check them.
- Data
- Closed sales reported to the MLS in the cities we cover, January 2012 to September 2026 (San Francisco from 2022): houses, condos and townhomes, with repeat records removed and sales under 50% or over 200% of list left out.
- Over asking
- A sale counts as over asking when the closing price is above the final list price. Sale-to-list is closing price ÷ final list price.
- Bands
- Each sale falls into one band by its closing price: under $1M, $1M to under $1.5M, $1.5M to under $2M, $2M to under $3M, $3M to under $5M, and $5M and up. Bands use nominal dollars.
- Recent window
- City numbers pool January 2024 through September 2026 so each band has enough sales; a band needs at least 10 sales to show, and 30 to be called a city’s hottest.
- Why it moved
- Bands describe what sold. The median Silicon Valley sale went from $599K in 2012 to $1.65M in the 12 months through September 2026, so many homes like those that sold under $1M in 2012 now sell in higher bands, and each band holds a different mix of homes than it did then.
- What it isn’t
- Not a forecast and not advice on pricing. How a listing does depends on its price, condition and competition when it lists.
the data
Download the bands
Download every band: Silicon Valley and both counties by year, and every city for 2024–2026.
Boyenga Team. “Where the Bidding Wars Are: Silicon Valley Over-Asking Sales by Price Band, 2012–2026,” from closed MLS sales, October 2026. https://www.boyengateam.com/bidding-wars-by-price
What each column means
area- Silicon Valley, a county region, San Francisco or a city.
period- A calendar year (2026 = January–September), or 2024-01..2026-09 for the city window.
band- Price band by closing price.
sales- Closed sales in the band, repeat records removed.
share_over_asking- Share of those sales closing above list price (0–1).
median_sale_to_list- Median closing price ÷ final list price (1.000 = 100%).
questions
Questions we hear
At what price are bidding wars most common in Silicon Valley?
From January 2024 to September 2026, homes at $2M–3M sold over asking most often (70%), against 40% under $1M. In 2012, under-$1M homes went over asking 52% of the time and $2M–3M homes 37%.
Why did the pattern flip?
One likely reason: prices rose across the board, so the kinds of homes that once sold under $1M now sell for more, and today’s under-$1M sales are a different mix. The data shows what sold; it can’t prove why.
Which price band is hottest in most cities?
Among the 31 cities with enough sales, $3M–5M was the hottest band in 13. The table above shows each city’s hottest band.
Where were the hottest bands?
The highest over-asking shares in a city’s hottest band from January 2024 to September 2026: Sunnyvale at $3M–5M (94% of 389 sales), Santa Clara at $3M–5M (90% of 50 sales) and Daly City at $1.5M–2M (85% of 117 sales). Shares from fewer sales swing more.
Does selling over asking mean the home sold for more than it was worth?
No. Over asking compares the sale to the list price, and list prices are set by sellers and their agents. Some homes are listed low to draw offers.
Are these prices adjusted for inflation?
No. The bands use nominal dollars, the prices buyers actually paid.
Why are some bands blank?
A band needs at least 10 sales in the period to show a share. Small towns and the highest bands in some cities don’t have that many.
Where does the data come from?
From closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search, with repeat records removed. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
Can I download the data?
Yes. The data section has a CSV of every band, for the regions by year and for every city.
more to learn
Go deeper
- Property Nerds IndexThis week’s 0–100 reading of market heat.
- Offer LabHow far over or under asking homes sold in the last 90 days.
- How Much Over AskingHow many dollars over list homes sold for, by city and price, every month since 2012.
- The $1M LineHow the share of sales under $1M, $2M and more moved since 2012.
- Leverage LabWho has the upper hand at your exact price right now.
- Best Month to SellEach city’s strongest and weakest closing months.
- Home Price HistoryEvery city’s median price since 2012.
- Data LibraryEvery dataset in one catalog, with methods, downloads and citations.
Based on closed sales reported to the MLS through our IDX feeds, read in October 2026. Shown as reported and not guaranteed; repeat records are removed. Shares describe past sales, not any single home or a forecast.
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