property nerds · price bandsfrom the mlsclosed sales 2012–2026by the boyenga team at compass
The $1M line, and where it went
In 2012, 78% of Silicon Valley home sales closed under $1 million. In 2025, 19% did. Here is how every price line moved in every city we cover, from fourteen years of closed sales.
of Silicon Valley home sales closed under $1 million.
under $1M$1M–1.5M$1.5M–2M$2M–3M$3M–5M$5M+
your budget
What share sold at or under your price?
Pick a price. The table shows what share of each city’s sales closed at or under it, then and now. Sorted by 2025.
| share of sales under $1M | 2012 | 2019 | 2025 | 2026* | sales, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silicon Valley | 78% | 35% | 19% | 19% | 2,884 |
| Santa Clara County | 81% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 2,139 |
| San Mateo County | 69% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 745 |
| East Palo Alto | 100% | 64% | 42% | 45% | 35 |
| Gilroy | 98% | 82% | 35% | 36% | 125 |
| San Bruno | 100% | 43% | 34% | 36% | 99 |
| Daly City | 100% | 52% | 31% | 30% | 130 |
| South San Francisco | 100% | 47% | 30% | 26% | 86 |
| San Francisco | — | — | 28% | 23% | 1,329 |
| Morgan Hill | 94% | 57% | 28% | 25% | 125 |
| San Jose | 93% | 53% | 25% | 27% | 1,378 |
| San Mateo | 79% | 25% | 23% | 21% | 189 |
| Santa Clara | 96% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 132 |
| Foster City | 75% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 45 |
| Campbell | 95% | 29% | 17% | 16% | 52 |
| Mountain View | 68% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 86 |
| Millbrae | 71% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 22 |
| Milpitas | 97% | 53% | 15% | 19% | 51 |
| Los Gatos | 49% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 56 |
| Sunnyvale | 80% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 88 |
| Redwood City | 78% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 56 |
| San Carlos | 61% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 31 |
| Burlingame | 40% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 17 |
| Belmont | 65% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 14 |
| Menlo Park | 35% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 20 |
| Palo Alto | 19% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 21 |
| Cupertino | 41% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 11 |
| Saratoga | 17% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 8 |
| Los Altos | 8% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6 |
| Woodside | 14% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| Atherton | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Hillsborough | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Los Altos Hills | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Monte Sereno | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Portola Valley | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
Closed sales of houses, condos and townhomes; nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation. Blank = fewer than 20 sales that year. 2026 = January–September. San Francisco starts in 2022.
the mix
Every year’s price mix
Every year’s sales split into six price bands. Pick a city to see how its mix moved.
under $1M$1M–1.5M$1.5M–2M$2M–3M$3M–5M$5M+
- 201278% · 20,967
- 201372% · 19,939
- 201465% · 18,657
- 201558% · 18,401
- 201653% · 17,794
- 201743% · 17,832
- 201830% · 16,706
- 201935% · 16,581
- 202031% · 17,699
- 202124% · 23,702
- 202222% · 16,965
- 202321% · 13,208
- 202419% · 15,376
- 202519% · 15,163
- 2026*19% · 11,564
Silicon Valley: each bar is that year’s closed sales split by price band; the orange share is under $1M, and the number after it is the year’s sales. * = January–September 2026.
under $1M today
Where sales under $1M still happen
In 2025, the cities where sales under $1M were most common, and where there were the most of them.
By share of 2025 sales
- East Palo Alto42% of 84 sales
- Gilroy35% of 359 sales
- San Bruno34% of 287 sales
- Daly City31% of 418 sales
- South San Francisco30% of 284 sales
- Morgan Hill28% of 449 sales
- San Jose25% of 5,440 sales
- San Mateo23% of 828 sales
By number of sales
- San Jose1,378 sales under $1M
- San Mateo189 sales under $1M
- Santa Clara132 sales under $1M
- Daly City130 sales under $1M
- Gilroy125 sales under $1M
- Morgan Hill125 sales under $1M
- San Bruno99 sales under $1M
- Sunnyvale88 sales under $1M
2025 closed sales of houses, condos and townhomes, by closing price. Cities with fewer than 100 sales a year (Atherton, East Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, Monte Sereno, Portola Valley, Woodside) swing more from year to year.
the new middle
$2 million and up, from a sliver to a third
As the $1M line faded, sales of $2M and up went from a sliver to more than a third of the market.
Share of Silicon Valley sales closing at $2M or more (bar scale: 50% = full width). In 2025, sales of $2M and up were the majority in 17 cities: Atherton (100%), Hillsborough (100%), Monte Sereno (100%), Los Altos Hills (99%), Portola Valley (94%), Saratoga (89%), Los Altos (88%), Palo Alto (82%), Woodside (79%), Burlingame (74%), Menlo Park (71%), Belmont (70%), San Carlos (66%), Cupertino (65%), Los Gatos (55%), Millbrae (52%), Redwood City (51%).
the method
How the price bands are built
How the price bands are built, so you can check them.
- Data
- Closed sales reported to the MLS in the cities we cover, January 2012 to September 2026 (San Francisco from 2022): houses, condos and townhomes, with repeat records removed and sales under 50% or over 200% of list left out.
- Bands
- Each sale falls into one band by its closing price: under $1M, $1M to under $1.5M, $1.5M to under $2M, $2M to under $3M, $3M to under $5M, and $5M and up.
- At or under a price
- The budget table adds up every band below the price you pick. “Under $1.5M” means the first two bands.
- Nominal dollars
- Prices are what buyers paid, not adjusted for inflation, so part of the shift is the falling value of a dollar.
- The mix matters
- A city’s bands reflect what sold there each year: more condos one year, more large houses the next. They describe the market’s sales, not what any one home is worth.
- Small samples
- A city-year needs at least 20 sales to show. Small towns have few sales a year, so their bands swing more.
the data
Download the bands
Download every city, year and price band.
Boyenga Team. “The $1M Line: Silicon Valley Home Sales by Price Band, 2012–2026,” from closed MLS sales, October 2026. https://www.boyengateam.com/homes-under-1-million
What each column means
area- Silicon Valley, a county region, San Francisco or a city.
year- Calendar year of closing (2026 = January–September).
band- Price band by closing price.
sales- Closed sales in that band, repeat records removed.
share- That band’s share of the year’s sales (0–1).
median_sale_price- The year’s median closed price for the area.
questions
Questions we hear
How many Silicon Valley homes sell for under $1 million?
In 2025, 19% of closed sales in the 31 Silicon Valley cities we cover were under $1M (2,884 sales), down from 78% in 2012 (16,405 sales). In 2019 the share was 35%.
Where do homes still sell for under $1M?
By share of 2025 sales, East Palo Alto (42%), Gilroy (35%), San Bruno (34%). By number of sales, San Jose (1,378), San Mateo (189), Santa Clara (132). The budget table shows every city.
Which cities lost their sub-$1M market?
In 10 cities, at least half of 2012 sales were under $1M and fewer than one in five were in 2025: Belmont, Campbell, Foster City, Millbrae, Milpitas, Mountain View, Redwood City, San Carlos, Santa Clara and Sunnyvale.
Has $2 million become the new $1 million?
In share terms, close to it. Sales of $2M and up were 4.9% of Silicon Valley sales in 2012 and 37% in 2025.
What about San Jose?
In 2012, 93% of San Jose sales closed under $1M; in 2025, 25%. The budget table shows the other price lines.
Are these prices adjusted for inflation?
No. They’re nominal dollars, the prices buyers actually paid, so part of the shift reflects the falling value of a dollar.
Does a lower share mean fewer homes under $1M exist?
It means fewer sold under $1M that year. Sales depend on what owners chose to sell, and on the mix of condos, townhomes and houses that changed hands.
Why is San Francisco only from 2022?
Our MLS feed has full San Francisco coverage from September 2021, so 2022 is its first full year.
Where does the data come from?
From closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search, with repeat records removed. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
Can I download the data?
Yes. The data section has a CSV of every city, year and price band.
more to learn
Go deeper
- Home Price HistoryEvery city’s median price and price per sq ft since 2012.
- What $1 Million BuysSquare feet per $1M (or your budget) in every city, 2012 against now.
- Price LadderEntry, median and top-end prices by city since 2012.
- Bidding Wars by PriceHow often homes at each price sold over asking, from under $1M to $5M+, every year since 2012.
- Budget LabWhat your budget bought in up to three cities.
- Property Nerds IndexThis week’s 0–100 reading of market heat.
- Best Month to SellEach city’s strongest and weakest closing months.
- Bedroom MathWhat one more bedroom costs, city by city.
- City Match-UpTwo cities side by side, from prices to transfer tax.
- Data LibraryEvery dataset in one catalog, with methods, downloads and citations.
Based on closed sales reported to the MLS through our IDX feeds, read in October 2026. Shown as reported and not guaranteed; repeat records are removed. Price bands describe what sold, not the value of any single home.
talk to a property nerd
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