What 260,554 Silicon Valley Home Sales Since 2012 Tell Us

We rebuilt fourteen years of Silicon Valley home sales from the MLS, one closed sale at a time: 260,554 sales of houses, condos and townhomes in the 31 cities we cover in Santa Clara County and bay-side San Mateo County, from January 2012 through September 2026, with San Francisco alongside from 2022. Here is what they show, in four questions. Each links to a page with every city, the method and the data to download.

1. How competitive is the market right now?

Our weekly Property Nerds® Silicon Valley Housing Market Index™ reads 63.1 out of 100 for October 18, 2026: warm, meaning sellers have the edge. It averages four MLS measures on fixed scales: sale-to-list (100.1%), the share of homes selling over asking (53.1%), months of supply (2.1) and the share of listings with a price cut (14.5%).

• By county: Santa Clara County 60.8, bay-side San Mateo County 75.4. San Francisco, reported separately, 84.9.
• Over the long run: rebuilt month by month from closed sales, the sales side of the index peaked in March 2022 and hit its low in December 2022. This week’s sales side is hotter than 22% of the 177 months on record.

2. How far have prices risen since 2012?

The median Silicon Valley sale was $599K in 2012 and $1.65M over the last 12 months (October 2025–September 2026): 2.75 times as much, about 7.6% a year. Per square foot, the median went from $382 to $992. The Home Price History page has the line for every city.

• The 2022 dip: median price per square foot fell 16.2% from its spring 2022 peak ($1,014, three months ending May 2022) to $850 (three months ending February 2023).
• The climb back, same months against same months: spring 2026 was 1.1% above spring 2022, and July–September 2026 was 8.3% above July–September 2022.
• Fastest growth since 2012, among cities with at least 100 sales a year, by median price per square foot: San Jose (2.81×), Santa Clara (2.78×) and Campbell (2.76×).

3. Is there a best month to sell?

On average, yes. Across 2012–2025, 70.9% of Silicon Valley sales that closed in April went over asking, against 51.6% in January. April was the strongest closing month in 13 of the 23 cities with enough sales to average year by year, and May in 7. Closing usually comes about a month after the accepted offer, so homes that closed in April were typically on the market a month or more earlier. See every city’s calendar on Best Month to Sell.

• Price per square foot by season: May closings averaged 3.4% above that year’s median, and January closings 10.5% below it. Part of that is the mix of homes that sell in each season.
• For buyers: January brings the least competition, but only about 4.8% of the year’s sales close that month, against 10.1% in each of May and June.

4. What happened to the $1 million home?

In 2012, 78% of Silicon Valley sales closed under $1M. In 2025, 19% did. Sales of $2M and up went the other way, from 4.9% of sales to 37%. The $1M Line shows every price band in every city, with a budget explorer.

• San Jose: 93% of sales were under $1M in 2012 and 25% in 2025, still the most sub-$1M sales of any city (1,378 in 2025).
• Ten cities went from at least half of sales under $1M in 2012 to fewer than one in five in 2025: Belmont, Campbell, Foster City, Millbrae, Milpitas, Mountain View, Redwood City, San Carlos, Santa Clara and Sunnyvale.
• Where sub-$1M sales were most common in 2025: East Palo Alto (42% of sales), Gilroy (35%) and San Bruno (34%).

How we counted

• Source: closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
• Repeat records: the same sale often arrives through more than one feed, so each sale is counted once, matched on a normalized address and sale date. Sales recorded at under 50% or over 200% of list are left out as data errors.
• Medians, nominal dollars: medians describe what sold, not what any single home is worth, and prices aren’t adjusted for inflation.
• Not a forecast: these are patterns in past sales. Each page lists its method, sample sizes and small-sample cautions, and every number can be downloaded.

Put your home on the line

Want to know where your street sits on these charts, or when to list? A Property Nerd will pull the sales that match your home and walk you through them. Call (408) 373-1660 or (650) 383-8606, or book a strategy call. Commissions are negotiable, and we offer bundled services, so ask us what’s included.