How Much Over Asking Do Silicon Valley Homes Sell For? 14 Years of Bidding-War Data

“How much over asking?” is one of the first questions Silicon Valley buyers ask, and sellers ask the mirror image. So we measured it: every closed MLS sale of a house, condo or townhome in the 31 cities we cover in Santa Clara County and bay-side San Mateo County, January 2012 through September 2026, with San Francisco shown separately from 2022. Here is how often homes sold over asking, how many dollars over, at what price and where.

1. How often homes sell over asking

From January 2024 to September 2026, 60% of Silicon Valley sales closed above their final list price. The odds depend on the price, and the pattern has flipped since 2012:

• 2012: homes under $1M sold over asking 52% of the time; homes at $3M–5M only 20%.
• 2024–2026: 40% under $1M, 68% at $3M–5M. The $2M–3M band went over asking most often (70%); $5M and up, 49%.
• By city: $3M–5M was the band most likely to go over asking in 13 of the 31 cities. The highest shares: Sunnyvale at $3M–5M (94% of 389 sales), Santa Clara at $3M–5M (90% of 50 sales) and Daly City at $1.5M–2M (85% of 117 sales).

One likely reason for the flip: prices rose across the board, so the kinds of homes that once sold under $1M now sell for more. The data shows what sold; it can’t prove why. Every band, year and city is on Bidding Wars by Price.

2. How much over, in dollars

Among homes that sold over asking from January 2024 to September 2026, the median went $112K over list (6.9%), and one in ten went $422K or more over.

• 2012: a median of $25K over list (4.6%).
• 2025: $105K (6.4%) among 8,625 over-asking sales; the top 10% went $415K or more over.
• The peak: 2022 was the highest year ($131K), and March 2022 the highest month ($219K). Through September 2026 the median is $111K.

See every month since 2012 and every city on How Much Over Asking.

3. The overbid at your price

Dollars over list grow with the price. Median overbid among over-asking sales, January 2024 to September 2026:

• Under $1M: $20K (2.9% over list)
• $1M–1.5M: $75K (6.2%)
• $1.5M–2M: $112K (7.2%)
• $2M–3M: $202K (9.2%, the highest in percent)
• $3M–5M: $302K (9.0%)
• $5M and up: $412K (6.8%)

4. Where overbids run biggest

Among the 27 cities with at least 100 over-asking sales from January 2024 to September 2026:

• Most dollars over list: Los Altos ($372K median, 547 over-asking sales), Hillsborough ($353K, 122) and Palo Alto ($287K, 836).
• Fewest: Gilroy ($25K), Morgan Hill ($50K) and East Palo Alto ($52K).
• Furthest over in percent: Millbrae (10.9%), Daly City (10.1%) and Burlingame (9.7%). San Francisco, shown separately, was 13.4%.

5. When

Across 2012–2025, 70.9% of Silicon Valley sales that closed in April went over asking, against 51.6% in January. Closing usually comes about a month after the accepted offer, so those April closings mostly reflect offers written in March and early April. Each city’s calendar is on Best Month to Sell.

What the numbers can and can’t tell you

• The list price is a strategy. Some sellers list below the expected price to draw offers, so a big overbid doesn’t mean a home sold for more than it was worth.
• A median isn’t an offer. Half of over-asking sales went further than the median, and half went less. The sales that match a specific home, and the number of offers expected, matter more than any citywide figure.
• Small towns swing. Each page shows the number of sales behind every figure; medians from fewer than 100 sales move a lot from year to year.

How we counted

• Source: closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
• The overbid: closing price minus final list price, after any price cuts, for sales that closed above list. Seller credits and concessions aren’t subtracted.
• Repeat records: each sale is counted once, matched on a normalized address and sale date. Sales recorded at under 50% or over 200% of list are left out as data errors.
• Nominal dollars: the amounts buyers actually paid, not adjusted for inflation. Both pages have the method, sample sizes and a CSV to download.

Writing an offer or setting a price?

A Property Nerd will pull the sales that match the home and show how far over or under asking each one went. Call (408) 373-1660 or (650) 383-8606, or book a strategy call. Commissions are negotiable, and we offer bundled services, so ask us what’s included.