Do Homes Sell Under Asking in Silicon Valley? When and Where Buyers Still Get a Discount

Silicon Valley is known for bidding wars, but not every home sells over asking. We measured how often buyers paid less than the list price, and by how much, across every closed MLS sale of a house, condo or townhome in the 31 cities we cover in Santa Clara County and bay-side San Mateo County, January 2012 through September 2026.

1. How often homes sell under asking

From January 2024 to September 2026, 30% of Silicon Valley sales closed under their final list price (12,741 sales), 10% closed exactly at list and 60% over. In 2025 alone, 33% sold under asking.

• Most under-asking year since 2012: 2019, at 41% of sales.
• Fewest: 2021, at 18%.
• Highest single month: January 2023, when 59% of closings came in under asking.

2. How big the discount is

Among homes that sold under asking from January 2024 to September 2026, the median discount was $48K, or 3.0% under list. One in ten closed $199K or more below list.

3. When buyers get the most room

Averaged over 2012–2025, 38% of January closings went under asking, against 21% in April. The share rises through the second half of the year. Closing usually comes about a month after the accepted offer, so January closings mostly reflect deals negotiated in December.

4. Where

Among the 28 cities with at least 200 sales from January 2024 to September 2026:

• Most often under asking: Atherton (51% of 201 sales), Los Altos Hills (50% of 240) and Los Gatos (47% of 1,352).
• Least often: South San Francisco (20%), Sunnyvale (21%) and Daly City (21%).

5. At what price

• Under $1M: 45% sold under asking, with a median discount of $19K (2.6%).
• $2M–3M: 23% under asking, median discount $89K (3.4%).
• $5M and up: 39% under asking, median discount $300K (4.3%).

Every year, month, price band and city is on Homes Selling Under Asking, with a CSV to download. The other side of the ledger, how far over list the winning bids went, is on How Much Over Asking.

What the numbers can and can’t tell you

• Under asking isn’t always a bargain. Some homes are listed above what the market will pay, so a sale under list may still be above similar homes nearby.
• Price cuts are already counted. The comparison uses the final list price. A home cut from $2.1M to $1.95M that sold at $1.95M counts as at list.
• Medians aren’t offers. The room on a specific home depends on how long it has sat, its condition and the competition that week.

How we counted

• Source: closed sales reported to the MLS, read through the IDX feeds that power our home search. Homes sold without an MLS listing aren’t included.
• Repeat records: each sale is counted once. Sales recorded at under 50% or over 200% of list are left out as data errors.
• Calendar: each month’s share is the average of that month across 2012–2025, each year counted equally.

Looking for room to negotiate?

A Property Nerd will find the homes that have sat, the sellers who have cut and the recent sales that show how much room there is. Call (408) 373-1660 or (650) 383-8606, or book a strategy call. Commissions are negotiable, and we offer bundled services, so ask us what’s included.